My 2025 Oscar Predictions

The 2025 awards season is coming to an end on March 2, with the highly anticipated Academy Awards closing out another explosive year in film. As an avid user of Letterboxd and frequenter of Ciné, I find immense joy in discussing the year’s most notable performances and projects. Now, whether or not I am considered “qualified” to do so is subjective, but I’m a firm believer in talking about your passions:thus I present my predictions for the 97th Annual Academy Awards.

My eyes are on some of the night’s biggest honors – Best Picture, Best Actor/Actress and Best Director. Films like “Anora,” “The Substance,” “The Brutalist” and “Emilia Pérez” have performed successfully during the season so far, proving for an unpredictable and competitive finale.

Best Actor/Actress

The frontrunners for Best Actress appear to be Mikey Madison and Demi Moore – and rightfully so. Both actresses deliver striking performances as a sex worker embarking on her own Cinderella story and an actress struggling to combat misogyny and beauty standards in the entertainment industry, respectively.

Demi Moore’s grotesque portrayal of a fading star in “The Substance,” has secured her first Golden Globe win for Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy and the Critics Choice award for Best Actress among the film categories. Audiences are calling this the most groundbreaking and outstanding role of her entire career, and I have to agree. Critical praise for Moore has been a long time coming, after solidifying her position as a defining and seasoned figure in Hollywood’s 80s and 90s.

However, Mikey Madison emerged onto the scene following her roles in “Scream VI” and “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” Her dedication and push for authentic depiction of sex work in “Anora” rightfully placed her among EE Rising Star and Best Actress nominees at the 2025 BAFTAs. While Madison has fallen to Moore in most major award shows so far, BAFTA delivered a stunning outcome by crowning Madison the best leading actress.

I have to agree with BAFTA on their decision and place Madison ahead of the competition, but I fear the Academy will end up choosing in favor of Moore. The Screen Actors Guild awards, set for Feb. 23, remains the final indicator for who will take home the Oscar.

Adrien Brody has claimed the category across the board, with the BAFTAs, Critics Choice and the Golden Globes selecting his work in “The Brutalist” to take the top male acting accolade. If he also manages to pull off the Academy Award, which I see happening, it will make for his second win after his performance in “The Pianist.”

I doubt the finale will go with another actor, unless the Screen Actors Guild decides to go against the grain. Personally, I’d like to see either Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) or Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”) finally secure a win, but I believe there is an almost perfect probability of the Academy voting for Brody.

Best Director

Directing is more of a challenge to predict, but it looks as though Brady Corbet for “The Brutalist” will procure the win. Corbet received Best Director – Motion Picture at the Golden Globes, and Best Director at the BAFTAs. While I think Sean Baker can pose a threat to Corbet for his direction in “Anora,” I find it hard to see anyone else defeating “The Brutalist.”

The only other director that has struck gold is Jon M. Chu, who managed to obtain a nomination and win from the Critics Choice, but was not included among this year’s Oscar nominees.

Best Picture

Best Picture is probably the most anticipated award of the night (at least for me), with ten nominees filling out the category. The films that have acquired the top spot up to the BAFTAs are:

“Anora” for the Critics Choice Best Picture
“The Brutalist” for the Golden Globes Best Motion Picture – Drama
“Conclave” for the BAFTAs Best Film
“Emilia Pérez” for the Golden Globes Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Surprisingly, “Emilia Pérez” snubbed “Anora” at the Golden Globes, despite heavy criticism from audiences. Although, I don’t believe it would be able to achieve that again with “The Brutalist” in the same category. It seems as though it comes down to “Anora” and “The Brutalist,” but I wouldn’t be shocked if “Conclave” manages to sneak past the two.

To get technical, “Anora,” much like "Parasite" five years ago, claimed the Palme d’Or (highest prize) at the Cannes Film Festival, placing it comfortably on the radar for international voters. Even though the festival takes place almost a year before the Academy Awards, it serves as a key indicator in the race for best picture nominations. However, the Palme d’Or recipient has not won the Academy Award for Best Picture since 2019.

Ultimately, my prediction lies in either “Conclave” or “The Brutalist,” if the Academy decides to follow a similar path to last year’s “Oppenheimer” win. I will still be crossing my fingers for “Anora,” though.

May the best film win!

Strike Out,

Mia Tanner

Editor: McKenna Edwards

Athens

Third Places: Why your favorite coffee shop has uncomfortable chairs

How do lobsters grow